The Global Political Agreement in Zimbabwe was signed on 25 September 2008 between the main political parties of MDC and ZanuPF. The agreement brokered by South Africa, under the auspices of SADC was viewed as an African solution for an African problem. This agreement gave hopes of political settlement and economic recovery, as well as extending or rescuing the political life of President Robert Mugabe and others who had dug in against the will of the people. But will Zimbabwe recover economically, and politically?

The MDC will not pull out of the GPA, no matter what happens, so they said. Neither will ZanuPF. Both have kept their eye on the political ball. President Mugabe finds solace in that SADC and African Union approve of his presidency as well as the fact there is political accommodation. At the recent NAM heads of state meeting in Egypt, President Mugabe roared that “Zimbabweans have spoken” and rumbled into the usual charade of attacks to the West, namely Europe and America, rebuking them for not lifting personal travel sanctions on him and high ranking ZanuPF chefs. The two main parties are walking a tight rope towards a highly contested constitutional process and eventually parliamentary and presidential elections, amid the jailing and violence against the MDC parliamentarians, members and activists by their Zanu counterparts. Roy Bennet has still not been tried and his appointment as deputy minister of agriculture is still hanging, with president Mugabe refusing to anoint him, citing the charges, which are said to be trumped. In Manicaland Province seven MDC members of parliament are either convicted, on trial or under criminal investigation, in what is believed to be ZanuPF plan to whittle MDC majority in parliament by framing charges on the lawmakers and jailing them.

The GPA has not been faithfully fulfilled. The irregular appointments of ZanuPF faithful, Mr Tomana, as head of prosecuting authority, and the renewal of Dr Gono’s contract as head of the Reserve Bank are still contested. MDC have recently released a dossier of 74 incidences, including fresh farm invasions, arrests, detentions and beatings which they say are proof that Zanu PF violated the Global Political Agreement. ZanuPF party militants were re-deployed into rural areas, and the media is largely banned, despite disputed interpretations of the legal position with regard to the existence and powers of the media regulating commission. In the final analysis the rule of law has not been restored and media freedoms are still under the spanner.

For the Zimbabweans in the Diaspora, particularly those who fled political and economic meltdown, it remains unclear who is in charge in Zimbabwe between the President, the Prime Minister, the old Joint Operations Command, the new JOMIC and various security structures. It is also unclear whether SADC is able and willing to reign in Zimbabwe should violence break loose. In the circumstances the best option is to wait until the elections are conducted, hopefully in two years. There is speculation that the elections will only be held in 2013, as both parties want to settle into government. Before the elections, the destination of Zimbabwe is unknown and risky. The only respite is that MDC have not taken to the use of violent tactics which ZanuPF have been inflicting on the nation, but it cannot be ruled out forever. Those who say Zimbabweans must go back now, are not reading the situation properly. Where is the protection and who provides it?

The economic scenarios hinge on the political developments. Zimbabwe needs aid to the tune of US$10 billion to finance her way out of the quagmire. African countries such as South Africa, Botswana, Mozambique etc have extended credit lines to the tune of about US$50 million. China has posted the biggest at US$892 million. These credit lines are like overdrafts, for purchases from the respective countries, in terms of products and suppliers. Europe and America pledged about S$250 million cash during Prime Ministers Tsvangirayi’s visit but to be channelled through the Multi Donor Trust Fund, managed by the World Bank office in Zimbabwe together with a cluster of committees. This is progress, but far too short.

The electricity generation capacity is about 20% of potential. Bulk water supply and reticulation in the cities have not been revamped for decades. These require not less than US$10 billion to reach optimal levels. Without these two, industry cannot sprout. In the Diaspora our calculations are that Zimbabwe requires US$50 billion to crawl out of the pits it dug itself into, roughly as follows:

Electricity 10 billion

Water 5 billion

Agriculture 10 billion

Infrastructure upgrade(railways, roads etc)              10 billion

Government services (health education etc) 15 billion

TOTAL 50 BILLION

The chances that Zimbabwe could raise this size of money, in the next ten years, are small. Yet these amounts are necessary to raise the productive levels to be able to generate sufficient government cash flows, through taxes, to restore economic vitality. Zimbabwe has few friends and the major international financial institutions such as the Paris Club and Brentwood institutions are reluctant to embrace Zimbabwe. The IMF and World Bank have been clear that no financial assistance will be extended to Zimbabwe until the arrear amounts, of more than US$2 billion, not only to the two institutions but also to the Paris Club creditors, are paid up to date. So Zimbabwe’s fate is sealed by the failure to fulfil the terms of the Global Political Agreement, lack of trust, arrears on previous loans and Mugabe’s vituperations.

In the premise progress on Zimbabwe will depend on who wins the next elections, when they are held, the atmosphere in which they are held, leverage by SADC and buy in of Zimbabweans. The probability is that Zimbabwe will be in limbo for a long time. Hopes of full economic and political recovery are still a dream. These are clear signals of a failed state.

The only hope is that the participation of the MDC will pull politics from extreme to the centre and that the Diaspora could utilize this space to engineer development.